Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition.  My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900.  I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months.  The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…

Since the last BullBear Market Report, the US equities markets have undergone a Wave 2 correction of the first move in a new, primary, secular bull market that began in November 2012. While I continued to maintain a long term bullish orientation, the period since the May top produced a set of technical readings which strongly resembled conditions present at the 2007 and 2011 tops. I remained open to the possibility that a new cyclical bear market began in May but I continued to warn that if…

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

Yeats, "The Second Coming"

From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible…

In the introduction to the last Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012:

Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2009. The actual situation of this market very closely parallels the 1974-1982 time frame. While the price bottom was made in 1974,…

In the March 10 BullBear Market Report, I concluded that the US equities markets had ended the long term bear market that started in 2000 with the November 2012 low and had begun a new, secular bull market:

This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave…

The last BullBear Market Report concluded that:

a new, secular Bull Market began in November 2012. While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was a stealth (E) wave ending a long term triangle and that recent price breakouts and changes to the technical character of the market mark the start of a very long term Major (V) bull market...

My current analysis…

One of the factors that might temper long term bullishness with regards to the current US equities market is that there currently appear to be no leading, dynamic economic growth sectors.  In the early stages of a secular bull market, however, the dynamic growth sectors that will lead the advance are often unclear or unknown.  The picture may be starting to clarify itself.  One area that appears poised to take off and add a dynamic growth component while reducing costs throughout the economy…

March is very important month in my work....Lows have been put in over the years & highs have been seen...this year I feel we may have seen a closing short term hi.. as of yesterday. The question is how bad will the correction be & for how long..

The last BullBear Market Report explored whether the long term Bear Market that began in 2000 may have ended in November of 2012.  This report comes down on the side of concluding that indeed a new, secular Bull Market has begun.  While there is still some chance that a bear market (D) wave top could come in the vicinity of the 2007 highs, evidence is mounting that the 2011-2012 period was an (E) wave of a…

Stock market mortgage derivatives are commonly referred to as mortgage backed securities. These are basically any type of investment or perhaps security that generally pays its investors with the profits generated. These profits mostly come from a particular grouping of mortgages. You might be asking a lot of mortgage questions and answers, but the answer to your question about the importance of mortgage derivatives…

Will the Deficit as a percentage of GDP get down to World War II levels by the end of the Obama Administration?

Source: Bianco Research

It's interesting that there has been virtually no attention paid to the forthcoming 4th quarter earnings reports.  Apparently the most fundamental of fundamentals supposedly underlying the movement of stock prices is…

What are the long term prospects for Corn and the grains complex?  Without knowing anything about the current fundamentals of the market, my take is neutral to bearish.

The monthly chart of Corn is showing a series of RSI divergences and a rising wedge pattern:

I wouldn't consider the current chart to be a good setup from either side of the market.  An upside…

According to the financial planners, investors should be cautious with their investment habits. They should keep a well-balanced portfolio with proper asset allocations. In addition, there should be an emergency fund that will act as a financial life boat in order to prevent insolvency in the wake of a major loss in investment. Investors with…

The markets took a wild ride last week. The S&P 500 surged early in the week on hopes of a business friendly, Romney victory only to get dashed when President Obama won his second term. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) lost $3.40 on the week to close at $138.16. The key this week is to realize it is options expiration. This is where institutions will push the market in the opposite direction from the crowds. After the drop last week, many more…

Since the July 9th BullBear Market Report, the US stock market has apparently completed an ABCDE ascending triangle pattern to complete the rally off the June low.  This is being confirmed by a mounting body of technical evidence which strongly suggests we have either seen the top to the rally or that it is nearby.  The Introduction to the last report…

Currencies: 18July Our point yesterday, the possibility of more central bank intervention moving to the back burner, was reiterated in Bernanke’s testimony today. Bernanke has made the point that the U.S. fiscal situation is unsustainable, that the Fed is ready to do more, but that here are economic issues that the Fed can’t really impact.



We continue to offer three points. The last two center on risk management:



The “relief rallies” like this have gotten shorter…

It’s just another day in the new financial-bizzaro world where any little piece of data may move the markets. Forget imploding Europe or mounting debt levels, the market “reportedly” went higher on a better than expected ISM Non-Mfg number.



You may ask, what the heck is the ISM Non-Mfg number anyways? It’s a gauge of new business orders from the Institute for Supply Management. Think of it as the “B list” of economic data reports, akin to the aging celebrity who appears on the…

Short bounce here depends on what the Fed says thursday.apple rally nicely from support 555.00. Could to june 16th.Careful here

One of the biggest moments for the markets can come when there is a key news release or fresh fundamental data. Buyers and sellers seem to wrestle with the potential outcome, and in the case of larger announcements, volatility goes through the roof. The problem that I see some traders struggle with is knowing what news to look for, and how to trade it.



Finding news that you can actually use.



The thing that often comes up when you talk about announcements is that…