Long Term B-Wave Top Has Finally Arrived

As regular readers of the BullBear Market Report know, I have been expecting to see a B-wave high in a largely sideways long term formation. It seems to me that chances are fairly high that we have seen the top of the B-wave rally off the September 2022 low. The next move is then a C-wave decline, the third movement in the pattern that started with the top made in December 2021.…

Happy New Year! The first week of the year saw a substantive decline in the stock indices, particularly in the leading tech stocks, and if the following week results in a further decline, this would likely confirm that a more substantive and accelerating drop will ensue. Long term I remain bullish and I do not expect to see lower lows in most indices. Some indices may in fact remain resilient and diverge from the larger decline.

2024 is set to be a watershed year in virtually…

As regular subscribers to the BullBearMarket Report know, I have been tracking the onset of a long term Secular Systemic Shift since the last bull market began in 2011.  In 2018 I began pointing towards 2020 as the year that "Shift happens".  I think it's hard to dispute that, indeed, 2020 has proven to be a watershed year.

At this time we are less than a month away from the November 3 U.S. election and there is…

Few readers will be unaware that our current era has been widely regarded as the Information Age.  The preceding epoch of the Industrial Revolution, marked by the production, distribution and consumption of goods, is regarded to have been superseded by a world increasingly dominated by the creation, collection, storage, collation, processing, distribution and consumption of Information.  1970 seems to be a generally…

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Apocalypse Now? The Secular Shift at the Crest of the Long Wave")

The last BullBear Market Report, issued on August 26, 2019, was entitled "…

(The following is the Introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, "Secular Long Wave Building Towards 2020 Final Top")

I've been maintaining for quite some time that the current bull market is the final 5th wave of a Long Wave that goes back to 1949 and that when it comes to an end it will represent a paradigmatic shift of multi-generational proportions.  Financial,…

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

At the December bottom I turned intermediate term bullish for the start of the final 5th wave of the Long Wave, anticipating a rally back towards the high. On the back of the Fed capitulation on its rate hiking cycle and balance sheet normalization program, most of the market…

(This is the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report)

As 2017 emerged into the following year I noted that the big cap indices had shown characteristics of a parabolic blow-off run since the November 2016 election.  Technical analysts know that when a market is running persistently above trend, a significant mean reversion is…

Here's the introduction to the latest BullBear Market Report, Shift Happens: Very Long Term Secular Shifts in US and Global Financial Markets and Economies in Progress

Over the course of the last few BullBear Market Reports, I have been exploring the potential for a long term secular…

What's In the Latest BullBear Market Report?…

Traditional signals and fundamental and technical analysis really don't matter any more. They really don't. You can't stop this train. All aboard. Dow 18,000 by December 17th. Dow 20,000 soon. You can't lose. You'll never have this chance again.

(comment to a mildly bearish article on a popular financial blog)

Eventually, all bull markets will see significant corrections of price gains.  During the last secular…

Since January I have been recommending long positions in Treasuries trading vehicles with a focus on the 20 Year+ Bond ETF, TLT.  Those positions performed very well, particularly relative to stocks, but it is time to exit and change orientation once again on Treasuries.  During the period that I was bullish on Treasuries I was neutral to bearish on stocks, calling for a corrective period.  January to May 2014 was indeed a largely corrective for stocks, but that has come to an end and a new…

01/02/13 BullBear Market Report:

Did a New Bull Market Start in November 2012?

Posted by Steven Vincent on January 3, 2013 at 2:12pm in BullBear Traders

Did a new Bull Market in US…

Since making a correction low on February 3rd, U.S. stock markets have seen a nice 5 day rally off of support and from a downside extended technical condition.  My overall take is that the markets have just seen the start of a 5th wave of a sequence that started in November 2012 with a maximum upside potential of SPX 1900.  I see limited upside and lots of downside potential in US equities over the next 1-4 months.  The risk/reward is not very favorable for longs, particularly in comparison…

Since the last BullBear Market Report, the US equities markets have undergone a Wave 2 correction of the first move in a new, primary, secular bull market that began in November 2012. While I continued to maintain a long term bullish orientation, the period since the May top produced a set of technical readings which strongly resembled conditions present at the 2007 and 2011 tops. I remained open to the possibility that a new cyclical bear market began in May but I continued to warn that if…