All Blog Posts (425)

Follow the Money: EuroDollar at Critical Juncture

After a 12% nearly vertical run to new highs in the SPX every trader and investor is asking whether the markets can continue higher or whether we are at or near a top of some kind. For some time I have been using intermarket analysis to help gauge market trend. In particular I have been tracking the relationship between the forex and equities markets and found… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2009 at 6:00pm — No Comments

Futures Trading & Trading Strategies

In regard to futures trading as well as the trading strategies that can assist you in trying to get to your goals,mechanical trend following approaches are what we use in my daily trading of our commodity pool. Hopefully you have read my other posts, there is no holy grail. This is hard work every day or you can invest with a commodity trading advisor in which you understand how he trades. Regardless what I have seen that has worked in the past and stands the potential to continue to succeed in… Continue

Added by andy abraham on July 16, 2009 at 12:55pm — 1 Comment

International Trader's Expo

Daytrading, Robots and Bears Predominate at Trader’s Gathering in Los Angeles

Sometimes I ask myself what useful purpose a trader serves. Sometimes I wonder if I am any better than the blue hairs who daily gamble the grandkids inheritance in the money temples of Vegas. Then I remember: my purpose is to provide liquidity to the markets. When the market really needs a buyer, I'm there to help. When sellers…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 27, 2009 at 10:30pm — No Comments

Major Profits for Commodity Futures Trading In a Crisis

Every crisis has created major profits for commodity futures trading. When utilizing a Trend Following strategy a commodity trading advisor makes himself ‘available for oppurtunities”. Most of the time in commodity futures trading nothing happens. Interestingly enough, really nothing has to happen. However in commodity futures trading history virtually all of the crisis of the world have generated LARGE profits for commodity trading advisors. All one has to do is look at last years economic… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 26, 2009 at 1:31am — No Comments

Trend Following Oppurtunities

Market history has show us that whenever there is turmoil in the markets trend following and commodity trading advisors benefit. Last year was an example as was the first Gulf War. Trend Following commodity trading advisors were up ranging from the mid 20% range to some such as Drury and Mulvaney capital up 70%- 100%. In the first Gulf War… trend following commodity trading advisors made money in Gold, Oil and currencies. In this video by Marc Faber, he states Hyperinflation Could Hit US In 5… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 23, 2009 at 3:16am — No Comments

Commodity trading advisors & their Trend following systems

Commodity trading advisors that utilize trend following have long known there is no Holy Grail. When trend following, commodity trading advisors know that anything can happen. Bearing in mind that anything can happen, commodity trading advisors have abandoned concepts such as fundamental analysis or simply Buy & Hold ( hope).Many successful trend followers and commodity trading advisors have developed trend following systems many times based on multiple systems and multiple time frames. The… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 23, 2009 at 3:15am — No Comments

New Moon Today: Phases of the Moon and the Stock Market

I'm not suggesting that we trade via Ouiji board, but the phases of the moon do affect human emotional and mental states and thus investor psychology. Here's an interesting piece I found for your consideration and enjoyment.

From: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/the-lunar-cycle-and-the-stock-market/…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 22, 2009 at 1:21pm — No Comments

Drawdowns in Commodity futures trading

As Ed Seyokta ( one of the legends of commodity futures trading) would say Drawdowns are like exhaling. If you want to make money in commodity futures trading you will have drawdowns. Drawdowns are a natural part of commodity futures trading. A drawdown is any losing period of a commodity trading advisor or in any commodity trading system. The exact definition is looked at as a percentage retrenchement from a equity high or peak to an equity low. The issue with Drawdowns are not just the… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 22, 2009 at 10:00am — No Comments

Trend following Commodity Trade of 6.20.09

As most commodity trading advisors know, Buy Strength and Sell Weakness. Bearing this in mind with our trend following methodology, the commodity trade of the week seems to be lumber. Lumber has had a tremendous sell off. To put this commodity trade in perspective in 1993 Lumber was selling for $929.10 hitting a low of $165.50. Would seem one would not want to be a supplier of lumber. Actually, probably many have gotten out of the business. As a commodity trading advisor and more so a trend… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 21, 2009 at 11:15am — No Comments

Is Intelligence needed in Managed Futures

What truly brings about success in Managed Futures? Is super intelligence needed for success in managed futures. After being involved in managed futures and commodity trading for years and seeing every mistake possible ( plus the ones I made). I have found the holy grail for managed futures. It is not a secret system or indicator… it is simply

Discipline & Patience

Using mechanical system trading for managed futures these aspects along with strong risk control can… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 21, 2009 at 10:24am — No Comments

Trend Trading Long Term Success

For those of you that have invested in Mutual funds many of you have lost money in your funds over a 10 year period. Compare this to some of the great trend followers. They have been compounding money for decades. Trend following is not a new trading style. Rather trend following started with Richard Donchian back in 1949. After losing all of his money in the Depression ( buy & hold) he learned not to hope, predict price but rather follow a trend if/when it becomes present. The fact is… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 21, 2009 at 9:49am — No Comments

Weekly Futures Trading Strongest & Weakest Markets 6.20.09

Many successful commodity trading advisors or CTAs look at the strongest and the weakest markets when performing their Futures trading. One of the more success methods utilized by commodity trading advisors is simply trend following. Commodity Trading Advisors that trend follow do not look to predict but rather react. When the futures markets trend they look to buy strength and sell weakness. For week ending 6.20.9 Below are the strongest and weakest markets rated by rate of change out of 80+… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 21, 2009 at 9:02am — No Comments

Examples of Commodity Trading Advisors that are Trend Followers

Below is a short list of Commodity Trading Advisors that Trend Follow. Trend Following has been around since the time of Donchian. The interesting point is that Commodity trading advisors that really understand risk have been able to generate returns of 15-20% over long periods of time. Look at this short list. The bigger question is why aren’t more investors investing with Trend Followers or CTAs who trend follow? I personally have been investing in CTAs( commodity trading advisors) with the… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 18, 2009 at 9:32pm — 4 Comments

Trend Following of Crude

I was in and out of the Crude trade since 5.22.09. I use a RATE OF CHANGE to identify the strongest and weakest markets. Crude has been one of the strongest since then. However yesterday I got taken out of my position. I trail from the highs 3 standard deviations and yesterday took me out. However Crude rallied and if crude surpasses 72.00 I am trying to ride the trend following train. I have no idea if the trade will work nor do I even care. I just put them on and see what happens. My risk is… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 18, 2009 at 3:32am — 2 Comments

Is the S&P Topping OFF?? Bear Market Rally Ending?

Read an interesting post this am. Glenn Neely from the NEoWave Institute a well known Elliott Wave trader came out with a call that the S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. To quote his press release“Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 18, 2009 at 3:05am — 3 Comments

Great Depression 1929 Quotes & Statements

Great Depression 1929 Quotes & Statements

Maybe the world has forgotten the word risk. Maybe our Great Depression will not happen. What I want to share is many quotes and statements from the era of the great depression 1929. No one knows really if this is a bear market rally or truly the beginning of new bull market. If one is a trend follower they do not need to. They simply follow the trend and make low risk bets. How low risk is investing in the stock market right now? There is… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 17, 2009 at 8:00am — No Comments

Economic Yellow Weeds

So many have called a bottom to the economic debacle. Honestly I have no opinion...but become more of a bear when it is almost accepted as common knowledge the worst is over. The VIX prior to the last several days was hitting extreme lows showing complancancy. Even from an economic standpoint there is a growing divergence between business sentiment surveys, which have shown great improvement and industrial production, which is down sharply. More so it was down 1.1% in May. Face it...9.4%… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 17, 2009 at 7:58am — No Comments

6.17.09 Strength potential Buys & Weakness Sells

The basis of many successful trend followers are buy strength and sell weakness. This is the basis of our commodity trading at Angus Jackson Partners. We don't simply buy. We use multiple systems for entries and focus on the risk. We do not risk more than 1% risk per trade..many are less...as well we do not load up the boat in any particular sector as well as monitor our open trade equity risk.

For this week...this is the short list for commodities. Some of these trades we have been… Continue

Added by andy abraham on June 17, 2009 at 7:47am — No Comments

THURSDAY: Andrew Cardwell and Larry Katz on The BullBear Market Report

Tune in and call in after the closing bell on Thursday, June 10th for the BullBear Market Report with Steven Vincent. My special guests: Andrew Cardwell and Larry Katz.

Andrew Cardwell is the acknowledged expert in the use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and president of Cardwell Financial Group, Inc. He began his trading career in 1978 as a broker with McCormick Commodities. In 1981, Andrew left the brokerage business to devote his time to the study of technical analysis and to… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on June 11, 2009 at 1:29am — No Comments