Is the S&P Topping OFF?? Bear Market Rally Ending?

[andy abraham]

Read an interesting post this am. Glenn Neely from the NEoWave Institute a well known Elliott Wave trader came out with a call that the S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. To quote his press release“Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!” Currently, the S&P is hovering around 905. The fact is any good CTA or Trend follower does not make calls like this. Rather they react not predict. In the meantime the SP500 has weakened 3.76% this week and is close to taking out a weekly moving average I use for my trading. On 3.27.09 the SP closed above which was a positive... however at 886 this would be considered Bearish.

Time will tell..The key is not to predict but make money.
Have a plan. Know where your trade works and where it does not.

[Steven Vincent]

I agree that the further we move from trying to predict the market and the closer we move to taking our cues from the market the better we trade. In Buddhism it is called "beginner's mind".

[andy abraham]

I do not predict anything...rather react....nor do I have any opinions...

[Steven Vincent]

There does seem to be a lot of bearish sentiment which just assumes that this recent rally was only a bear market bounce and expects new lows. From a sentiment perspective that's bullish.

The 50 day EMA on the SPX is at 896 now. Correlates closely with your weekly MA.