March 2010 Blog Posts (17)

Where trendlines cross...

Do you see this long term trendline, sloping downward, and magenta colored in this next chart?

Now do you see the upward curving trendline in this next chart that provides current resistance? These shorter range exponential trendlines were generated by the 10/2007-3/2009 decline....

These two trendlines are crossing. This is what it looks like with this morning's high and… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 26, 2010 at 11:30am — 9 Comments

A while back, I published this chart before we had a breakout of the

symmetrical triangle. I was expecting the triangle to break out to the

upside, as I presumed that Britain was in more trouble than the U.S.

This chart almost suggests the opposite...

Then today I found this:

U.S. is riskier than the Euro Zone: so says CDS market…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 24, 2010 at 10:00pm — 6 Comments

Microtrendline charts, updated

Bears, keep your powder dry, don't pull the trigger on too many short

positions until price action ducks unequivocally back below these resistance

lines that define the tops....Likewise that is the moment for the Bulls to sell....

The December 28th, double nodes took 13 trading

days to resolve into a top on 1/15/10, the 3/11/10 nodes could take almost as long,

so patience is required...…

Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 23, 2010 at 11:30pm — No Comments

Underlying weakness in equities markets suggests little upside from here...

Note the vertical red lines where the two exponential nodes presaged declines in the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator (symbol: $NAMO). This wasn't planned, but the nodes line up well with two recent peaks in this indicator.

Note that the MACD crossover of the 'zero line' of the McClellan Oscillator (at the top of the chart) often corresponded with peaks in the $NDX. I have highlighted some of these events with… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 21, 2010 at 7:00pm — 1 Comment

Does old support become resistance? We'll find out...

Added by Mark Lytle on March 17, 2010 at 10:18am — No Comments

Microtrendlines updated @ 10:00 A.M. CST, 3/16/10

For a bigger version (easier to see) click on link below:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_SxZuN3tlxbQ/S5-smlPWILI/AAAAAAAACEs/mCXYXCOlceM/s1600/%24NDX_micro_trendlines.png

For a bigger version (easier to see)… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 15, 2010 at 9:30pm — No Comments

Top is probably in (3/12/10).

I do comparisons of node strike dates on waves as they are forming, and using the data from the

November and March lows, you can run exponential nodes from different wave series and see what

dates are in common.

Two different wave counts for the rally in the $NDX gives you these dates :

You can see the dates and extremes for the wave endpoints on the right in these spreadsheets....

For the… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 15, 2010 at 11:00am — 1 Comment

The $silver/$gold ratio...

You can just smell a whiff of deflation coming.....

The link below has a… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 12, 2010 at 8:30pm — No Comments

A few charts...

Weekly put/call, equities...2 and 4 week averages, with the $SPX superimposed......

Next, the $NDX Microtrendline chart, hitting the ceiling.......

Finally, IWM, an ETF proxy for the Russell 2000...

Notice in this chart, that the price action has exceeded the weekly Bollinger Bands...

This is not that common… Continue

Added by Mark Lytle on March 12, 2010 at 7:43pm — No Comments

Current $NDX and $SPX Micro-trendline charts

Added by Mark Lytle on March 9, 2010 at 3:24pm — No Comments

Russell 2000 has close, but not overlapping, major nodes...

The double $NDX node falls on the 11th of March, the two nodes shown on
this chart are 3/9/09 for the red 1.00 node line, and 3/23/10 for the
blue 1.00 node line. Obviously the $NDX double node fits (timeewise) between the
red and blue lines on this chart....

Added by Mark Lytle on March 8, 2010 at 12:30am — No Comments

An interesting and creative sentiment indicator....

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16010.htm

I found this link worth reading...

Added by Mark Lytle on March 6, 2010 at 11:38pm — No Comments

Euro FX E/Wave

The E/W count for the Euro/USD is reasonably clear but for the slow turn into wave four. A target in mid 1.38 would fit well and fits with Steven's latest Euro analysis

Euro daily 12 mar.jpg

Added by pm on March 6, 2010 at 9:26pm — 1 Comment