08/11 Member Discussion

[Steven Vincent]

Post your thoughts, ideas, commentary and research on the markets here.

[J CHAN]

I am sorry. EW apparently misguided people more often than not.  EWI certainly did hurt people big time. I am aware of the five of five of five at the present. . . will see. 

[Ric Dezorzi]

Going on Elliott Wave purists, market manipulation is minimal. Markets are driven by psychology alone. My own view is that by July 2011 the ranks of retail shorts had dwindled. Most of them were trading simply on economic fundamentals. I think the selling pressure is coming from stock owners dumping. The ZH experience is an example of market psychology at work.
I reside in Australia and trade the markets here. In the last week many alerts have been issued through the media imploring people not to shift out of stocks in their retirement/mutual funds. The last time alerts like this were issued was in Oct 2008. Maybe they're preempting redemtions or have already started to receive a flood of redemption requests from stocks into bonds/cash/gold. People nearing retirement tend to be more fearful. Stocks down, bonds up, confirmation? This is yet another example of psychology influencing the market.  

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Further to my last post, you can never be 100% sure of one's analysis, that's one of the benefits of a trading site, to exchange ideas and put analysis to the test. The Zero Hedge experience was meant to corroborate my view that the top occured in July and not April, and to put that particular view up for discussion. I monitor bull and bear blogs regularly because often gives you a feel for what the retail crowd are thinking and doing. Also to debate 5-3-5 v's 3-3-3-3-3 move from Mar-2009 low, as it has a bearing on were the market may head from here.
Putting one's analysis up to be tested and reviewed by one's peers can lead to improvement  and additional insights. It’s alot better than having it directly tested by the market 'naked', so to speak.

[J CHAN]

 

I will stop all my bottom wishing comments.  Sorry for making so much noices.

[J CHAN]

 

TLT just issued a RSI bearish swing sell signal.  Still waitng for $VIX's bearish swing sell signal.

[J CHAN]

 

TLT just make a significant drop at 1:00 pm eastern time.  The TLT Rally is over. The big play now may be betting that the doomsayers are overreacting and short VXX, as VXX has yet to start its downard journey. .   I don't short and have no position on VXX.

[Jim sanberg]

Guys you have to see this:

 

http://www.mt.net/~watcher/archives/the-circle-of-time-predicts-fut...

 

Look at the middle part of the page where it says October 29, 1929

 

Where it correlates to 8/11/2011- 9/13/2011

[Julie K. Turner]

I don't know what is wierder - this forum post or the fact that at the exact moment that I was reading it, a trader was being interviewed on CNBC talking about fractals.  He said that a bunch of traders were predicting the current turmoil based on the fact that we are on the outer edge of the fractal.  I think the CNBC team wanted to turn on the theme music to "The Twilight Zone", but I find this very interesting...

[J CHAN]

Hindsight is perfect.  Isn't it?  But if you play long at the lows as depcited by McHugh Chart and cash otherwise, your result isn't too bad.  There wer 2 - 125% recovery, 1 - 100% recovery, 3 - 62% recovery and 1 - 38 % recovery.  Any of these recoveries will prompt you to cover your shorts. So, you will never make that 83% return that you hope for.

[J CHAN]

Excerpt from Fibtimer 8/5/11 post:

"On Monday, August 8, the SPY broke below the critical 61.8% retracement support for that advance. Support was at SPY 116.63. The SPY closed Monday at 112.26.

Breaking this support points to a test of the 2010 lows near SPY 102.00. There is good reason to look for a bounce and rally first, possibly on Tuesday, August 9. The CBOE Volatility Index – VIX has reached levels pointing to an imminent reversal and rally in stocks."

But after any bounce, the markets still face continued downside, with a target around SPY 102.00."

[J CHAN]

VXX now issued a RSI bearish swing sell signal.  You acted upon my note 21 hours ago, you would have 15% plus gain at the moment. I expect more to come now that $NYLOW is way below 100.

[J CHAN]

 

The advice for you is don't listen to me, I am just making noises.  Look at facts and utilize your own judgement. In particular, I am not here to compete with anyone. The fact is that $VIX just has a RSI Bearish Swing Sell Signal. You may read up on that on many website.  No guarantee the Signal will not fail.  I found it to lead to significant move quite often.

[J CHAN]

$VIX has a RSI Bearish Swing Sell Signal. VXX does not have one.  I am doubtful on the Company behind VXX given the disparity between VXX and the indices that it supposed to track.