Mark Lytle's Blog – March 2010 Archive (16)

Do you see this long term trendline, sloping downward, and magenta colored in this next chart?

Now do you see the upward curving trendline in this next chart that provides current resistance? These shorter range exponential trendlines were generated by the 10/2007-3/2009 decline....

These two trendlines are crossing. This is what it looks like with this morning's high and… Continue

A while back, I published this chart before we had a breakout of the

symmetrical triangle. I was expecting the triangle to break out to the

upside, as I presumed that Britain was in more trouble than the U.S.

This chart almost suggests the opposite...

Then today I found this:



U.S. is riskier than the Euro Zone: so says CDS market…



Continue

Bears, keep your powder dry, don't pull the trigger on too many short

positions until price action ducks unequivocally back below these resistance

lines that define the tops....Likewise that is the moment for the Bulls to sell....

The December 28th, double nodes took 13 trading

days to resolve into a top on 1/15/10, the 3/11/10 nodes could take almost as long,

so patience is required...…

Continue

Note the vertical red lines where the two exponential nodes presaged declines in the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator (symbol: $NAMO). This wasn't planned, but the nodes line up well with two recent peaks in this indicator.



Note that the MACD crossover of the 'zero line' of the McClellan Oscillator (at the top of the chart) often corresponded with peaks in the $NDX. I have highlighted some of these events with… Continue

For a bigger version (easier to see) click on link below:



http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_SxZuN3tlxbQ/S5-smlPWILI/AAAAAAAACEs/mCXYXCOlceM/s1600/%24NDX_micro_trendlines.png

For a bigger version (easier to see)… Continue

I do comparisons of node strike dates on waves as they are forming, and using the data from the

November and March lows, you can run exponential nodes from different wave series and see what

dates are in common.



Two different wave counts for the rally in the $NDX gives you these dates :

You can see the dates and extremes for the wave endpoints on the right in these spreadsheets....



For the… Continue

You can just smell a whiff of deflation coming.....

The link below has a… Continue

Weekly put/call, equities...2 and 4 week averages, with the $SPX superimposed......

Next, the $NDX Microtrendline chart, hitting the ceiling.......

Finally, IWM, an ETF proxy for the Russell 2000...

Notice in this chart, that the price action has exceeded the weekly Bollinger Bands...

This is not that common… Continue

The double $NDX node falls on the 11th of March, the two nodes shown on
this chart are 3/9/09 for the red 1.00 node line, and 3/23/10 for the
blue 1.00 node line. Obviously the $NDX double node fits (timeewise) between the
red and blue lines on this chart....

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16010.htm

I found this link worth reading...

This doesn't mean a trend change on this date, but like the December 28th warning which materilized after two weeks, this may do something similar...it could, however, also be early...it's random...