10/11 Member Discussions

[J CHAN]

Excerpts from Fibtimer's Weekend Report,

 

"Early this week the S&P 500 Index - SPX rose for two straight days looking like it was ready to take off to the upside. But number gains aside, where was the volume? When you have extreme gains but there is not extreme volume to confirm those gains, there is reason to doubt the move.

On Wednesday, the markets again reversed to the downside and by Friday's close had erased every gain for the SPX and managed to close out the week with a loss.

The concern is in the selloffs, especially Friday's. The large percentage loss was this time accompanied by large volume. The markets are moving lower with confirming volume and that is bearish.

The original correction low, reached in early August, remains the low and also the support for this decline. But that low is again headed for a test, possibly next week. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index RUT, which we use in our Small Cap Timing Strategy, has broken its August lows decisively and this is an ominous sign for the SPX."

[J CHAN]

Excerpts from Joe Duarte's latest free reading:

 

"The U.S. stock market turned around in dramatic fashion on Tuesday, as we humbly predicted that it might, in this space. The big question is whether this was the absolute bottom or just another stop along the way in what may be a long term bear market? 

If we look at the chart of the S & P 500 (SPX), there are two indicators that say that this may well be the bottom. That's right. This is no misprint. This may be the bottom if the RSI (top bracket) and the MACD (bottom bracket) oscillators are correct. 

Here is the way it works. If you look at the bottom that was made on August 9, you see that the RSI indicator made a very significant low (brown patch on RSI), while the MACD also made a huge low, both on the MACD histogram and the MACD graph.

Now, if you look at the low that was made on October 4, neither the RSI or the MACD went anywhere near the August lows, even though the S & P 500 made a significant new low. 

These two indicators are telling us that despite the drama that has unfolded over the last few days, the selling had a lot less momentum than it did on August 9. In fact, the August 9 bottom was more than likely the momentum low for the break, while the October 4 low seems to have been the panic bottom. This is a well known occurrence in technical analysis which qualifies the current market as one in which a "double bottom" has been made. "

 

We have a positive divergence building but so soon as to calling a bottom ?   A serious break from a 2 month bear flag ends so soon?  Really. Not in the opinion of Stockcharts.com or Mr. Sy Hardings.  Poor Mr. Fibtimer sits back there with nothing to do except counting his win on the Treasures.

[J CHAN]

How come  I am the only person BS here?  This is the only website that I found that allow BS about current market condition.  Why isn't more people BS . . .??

 

My son stops me from going long the last 3 times.  I am think of split the money to invest into two portion with the ratio of which depends on trend.  I then flip flop according to the calibrated PPO histogram signal.  The signal so far has been excellent and why should I be concern?

[J CHAN]

Excerpts from Tim Ord's Latest Article, 

"A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested and that test came yesterday. For a bullish signal to be triggered, the test needs to be on lighter volume and close above the “Selling climax” low, which it did. The 100 day average of the TRIN hit into the intermediate term bullish level of 1.50 and suggest the potential uptrend will be of intermediate term and could keep the rally going into year end. There is strong resistance near 1250 on SPX and could be where market is headed. The McClellan Oscillator did produce a positive divergence yesterday and a bullish sign. Sometimes the test of the “Selling Climax” is tested (that’s yesterday’s low) before the market heads higher and as long as the test is on lighter volume the bullish picture will remain."

[J CHAN]

PPO Histogram sell signal in hand. flop.

[Ali]

I think large volumes in sales may mean people may be square now and they have to buy something so may be little bit upside anyway I m not very experienced. 

[Ali]

I think large volumes in sales may mean people may be square now and they have to buy something so may be little bit upside anyway I m not very experienced. 

[J CHAN]

I am sorry that I have now abondoned the strategies that I started posting at Alpha 20 Holds.    

I believe I have found a better way and will share it with anyoune interested.

I implemented several portfolios in VictorVest using their winning strategies included Mighty Mites, and Thorton Thunder in a reverse fashions that allows VictorVest to issue Trailing Buy Stop Alerts to me when 7% trailing stop is triggered.  I will then review the chart pattern using stockcharts.com.  If the alert pass my inspection, I will issue a Buy Alert on the stock.

It is suggested entry on Buy Alerts with small position and a 7% trailing stop.  Exit when 7% trailing is treggered or sooner when the stock starts exhibiting negative chart behavior.  Take profit on half the position when the stock gains 20 % or more and peaking, and then hold the rest for the length of rise until the 7% trailing stop is triggered.

Backtests of the VictorVest Strategies indicate a Return of 43.55% for Thorton Thunders and 72% for Mighty Mites since the start of the current bull run on 10/3/11.  Since we included additional pattern examination in our approach, we should perform even better than purely following the Strategies and spend less on commission.

For those that may be interest in adopting my strategy and get my alerts, you may follow me at www.stocktwits.com/genyko

Genyko

2/25/2012