08/11 Member Discussion

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Permalink Reply by Jim sanberg on August 2, 2011 at 3:08pm

TLT spiked almost 3 percent -could this be the blow off, like last year, before a stock rally?

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 4, 2011 at 1:48pm

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thisisinsane/2011/08/04/buy-this-market/

Permalink Reply by Julie K. Turner on August 6, 2011 at 10:34am

from a long term perspective, is it possible that we have a GIGANTIC head and shoulders pattern in both the Dow and the S&P? (referencing your long term log scale chart from the '80's, Steven) And if central banks ease to get the world out of the current plunge, will markets go up for one last time before the mother of all drops or are we already there? If so, the right shoulder looks a bit anemic, but I am too much of a novice at charting to tell...

Permalink Reply by Jim sanberg on August 6, 2011 at 12:51pm

A number of advisors have called this the top. Terry Laundry at http://www.ttheory.com/links.php

Carl Swenlin at http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TopAdvisors.html A Dow Theory Sell signal hit last week-Jack Schannep http://thedowtheory.com/index.htm. Look for 1145 S@P and 10760 Dow for bear market timing from Schannep . If the bear has started look for it to last 2 to3 years bringing the Dow to 3000-5000. Hopefully Steven can navigate us through it . This might be a short bottom look for a rebound to the 200 day for a short entry I think that is what Steven is talking about. The brave can try and play the rebound. Be careful if this is not the bottom make sure you have a disciplined exit number.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 8, 2011 at 6:37am

$VIX is too high for the brave to be comfortable. Tom Bowley discussed the spike down in market similarly to 2004 when the market found bottom after the third spike down. But $VIX in 2004 never gets higher than 23. $VIX here at close to 40 reminded me of 2008, when it got to 40 and then stayed elevated and went to extreme that was never seen before.

Let hope $VIX can drop rapidly back to around the low 20s. Otherwise, lower low is still to come.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 9, 2011 at 4:48pm

PPO histrogram made the first shorter negative bar today. FXI has a bullish engulfing pattern. SPY has a third hammer in a roll. If maket move up tomorrow, it will be enough for IWM:SPY, SPY:TLT to cross to the upside. SPY:VXX will need another day unless $VIX drops enthusiastically in confirmaton Leading stocks as represented by TOP 100 Alpha as of 7/5, 7/25, and 8/5 puts in a gain of 6.2 to 8.6% today. BUY.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 9, 2011 at 5:07pm

33 of the TOP 100 Alpha Stocks as of 7/23/11 has a gain of over 10% today leading by MAKO 34.5%, VHC 24.23%, EMKR 22%, ARIA 17.17%, HNH 17%, ZAGG 16.81%, VHI 16.27%, FTK 15.71% . . .. It sure looks like the bottom is in.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 10, 2011 at 9:21am

HOLD. Futures are down. Non-confirmation is another SELL signal. When this is going to end?

"Ordinarily, it is considered a bearish event for an individual stock to break below its lower Donchian Channel line. But when we see large numbers of stocks all doing that at the exact same time, then the meaning changes. Readings above 60 tend to mark important short term price bottoms. So getting this indicator all the way up to 96 shows that a concerted and exhaustive selling wave has taken place.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report"

"Important SHORT TERM (empharsis added) Price Bottoms. You will have to ask Mr. Tom McClellan as to what he meant to be short term. Sy Harding indicated it not yet time to buy.

The change from a bullish perspective to a bearish perspective from July 26 to July 27 is so quick and so subtle and few can react to instinctaneously. BBT have us in cash right at that moment. It is pure sepculation here that the change from a bearish perspective to a bullish perspective can be just as dramatic in the near future. This is not usually how things turn out. So the short term rally most likely anything but short and the move down will continue as BBT sees at the moment.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 10, 2011 at 9:23am

Here is MeClellan's article.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ndx_stocks...

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 10, 2011 at 1:36pm

Just don't want to mislead people here. Mr. MeClellan's charts did not period included the 2008 event. It could be misleading unless the data for 2008 is examined.

Permalink Reply by J CHAN on August 10, 2011 at 11:46am

I am no Expert. I am an admitted loser. I thanks Steve to give me rooms to work out my thought. You comment is well taken.

Permalink Reply by Gary Green on August 9, 2011 at 8:01pm

Look... I am just trying to make a buck or two. I have risk tolerance for either direction the market goes. I cannot decipher what direction you experts think this thing is going to go. Am I supposed to play my puts on the SPY in the short term or am I supposed to play calls for a bounce for the SPY? I lost all I care to lose this year and was away from my trading desk for the last two weeks before the crash and did not get to place positions to capitalize on the free fall. Frankly I am irritated that I missed my one good opportunity this year to make a nice leveraged killing. So what gives? Where are you placing your trade and for what targets?