Steven Vincent's Blog (103)

Crude Oil Bear Trap?

The recent breakdown in crude oil may turn out to be a bear trap. A close above the convergence of the long term trend, the trend off the March bottom and the short term downtrend will be very bullish.

Added by Steven Vincent on October 6, 2009 at 7:54pm — No Comments

Important Breakout in Gold

Is this forecasting a breakdown in the dollar? A continued rally in equities? A resurgence in commodities? Will the breakout hold?

Added by Steven Vincent on October 5, 2009 at 5:26pm — No Comments

Toppy And Trendless

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

October 4, 2009

The move produced out of this current period indicate recovery, stagflation or depression

SUMMARY

Overall, the evidence is mounting that some kind of…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 4, 2009 at 6:30pm — 1 Comment

Inflation, Deflation or Growth? Markets Will Answer Soon

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 26, 2009

Markets are at an important inflection point and the inflation vs. deflation vs. growth debate may be resolved soon.

SUMMARY

All…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 27, 2009 at 5:30pm — 1 Comment

Join BullBear Trading Service!

The BullBear Trading Service provides members with swing trades on a short to long term basis. Details will be provided including entry, exit and stop levels and the technical and fundamental basis for each trade. Alerts will be sent via Twitter.

BBTS is free, however it is expected that if a trade is successful you will make a donation from your profits. I've adopted this model because I do not believe I should take money if you do not make money from my service.

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 25, 2009 at 6:30pm — No Comments

SPX Update: Topping or Breaking Out?

While there certainly could be a top here I think that to call one at this point would be pure speculation and guesswork. Picking a top is not advisable. There is some evidence that we are seeing the acceleration of the bull trend rather than its fading.

The scenario remains unusually bullish. We have an upside… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on September 22, 2009 at 12:17pm — No Comments

Dollar and Precious Metals: Apocalypse Not Yet?

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 13, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top and the corresponding decline in the US Dollar may be a bottom in the making. On the other hand...…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 14, 2009 at 1:24am — 1 Comment

Dollar Carry Trade?

This piece from FX Solutions I found to be a balanced explanation of the issue of the US Dollar as the new "Carry Trade" currency. I insert my own commentary in bold and bracketed. If you are interested in forex or the precious metals markets this is an important read.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 13, 2009 at 6:51pm — No Comments

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Precious Metals Breakout, Fakeout or Shakeout?

Straight "To Da Moon" Is Not The Only Plausible Scenario

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

September 5, 2009

The recent move in gold and silver may be an important top, a decisive breakout or a prelude to a shakeout of weak hands…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 6, 2009 at 12:00am — No Comments

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

Major Market Turning Point Dead Ahead (Part I)

A Transitional Period in Intermarket Relationships Will Likely Give Way to New Secular Trends

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

August 28, 2009

A pullback to support in equities is likely and could set up a long term buying…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 31, 2009 at 1:00am — 15 Comments

My Trades

Short AUD.USD, NZD.USD, Crude Oil

Well I decided to put my money where my keystrokes are and follow my own advice. I went short the Australian and New Zealand Dollars and Crude Oil. Ask questions about the trade in the comments section if you have any. Or tell me I'm nuts if you think so! Here are the charts:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 11, 2009 at 11:00pm — No Comments

Back to the Future for the US Dollar: Addendum-The Japanese Yen

This is an addendum to the recent BullBear Market Report: Back to the Future for the U.S. Dollar http://seekingalpha.com/article/154866-back-to-the-future-for-the-u-s-dollar

Yen Carry Trade

Prior to the Panic of…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 10, 2009 at 8:06pm — No Comments

Back to the Future for the US Dollar: Is it March 2009 for the Greenback?

Back to the Future for the US Dollar:

Is it March 2009 for the Greenback? The Dollar may soon confirm a secular Bear Trap reversal.

The BullBear Market Report

August 7, 2009

In the last BBMR we focused on the US Dollar and concluded that a major break of very long term support was imminent and that a…

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Added by Steven Vincent on August 9, 2009 at 2:30am — 3 Comments

The BullBear Market Report: From Bear Trap to Bull Market? The US Dollar is Key

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

July 25, 2009

A false breakdown has reversed sharply to new highs. Has a new Bull Market begun?

SUMMARY

Since the last BBMR on May 25th, the equities markets have made a top, established a new downtrend and then threatened to break down out of a head and shoulders formation. The break was rejected with a violent…

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Added by Steven Vincent on July 25, 2009 at 11:30pm — 1 Comment

Follow the Money: EuroDollar at Critical Juncture

After a 12% nearly vertical run to new highs in the SPX every trader and investor is asking whether the markets can continue higher or whether we are at or near a top of some kind. For some time I have been using intermarket analysis to help gauge market trend. In particular I have been tracking the relationship between the forex and equities markets and found… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on July 24, 2009 at 6:00pm — No Comments

International Trader's Expo

Daytrading, Robots and Bears Predominate at Trader’s Gathering in Los Angeles

Sometimes I ask myself what useful purpose a trader serves. Sometimes I wonder if I am any better than the blue hairs who daily gamble the grandkids inheritance in the money temples of Vegas. Then I remember: my purpose is to provide liquidity to the markets. When the market really needs a buyer, I'm there to help. When sellers…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 27, 2009 at 10:30pm — No Comments

New Moon Today: Phases of the Moon and the Stock Market

I'm not suggesting that we trade via Ouiji board, but the phases of the moon do affect human emotional and mental states and thus investor psychology. Here's an interesting piece I found for your consideration and enjoyment.

From: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/the-lunar-cycle-and-the-stock-market/…

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 22, 2009 at 1:21pm — No Comments

THURSDAY: Andrew Cardwell and Larry Katz on The BullBear Market Report

Tune in and call in after the closing bell on Thursday, June 10th for the BullBear Market Report with Steven Vincent. My special guests: Andrew Cardwell and Larry Katz.

Andrew Cardwell is the acknowledged expert in the use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and president of Cardwell Financial Group, Inc. He began his trading career in 1978 as a broker with McCormick Commodities. In 1981, Andrew left the brokerage business to devote his time to the study of technical analysis and to… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on June 11, 2009 at 1:29am — No Comments

Important Charts

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Added by Steven Vincent on June 1, 2009 at 3:50pm — 1 Comment

Trendless Consolidation Will Give Way to Major Move

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

May 25, 2009

A period of trendless consolidation has begun. Will it resolve to the updside or downside?

SUMMARY

Since the last BBMR on May 9th, the equities markets have made a top and generally (though not universally) the trend from the March bottom has been broken. There is no clear downtrend in force as yet and…

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Added by Steven Vincent on May 26, 2009 at 1:00am — No Comments