Steven Vincent's Blog (103)

Amazing Invisible Charts!

THE INVISIBLE CHARTS

(excerpted from the most recent BullBear Weekend Report)…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 8, 2010 at 4:42pm — 1 Comment

Final Freakout? Hyperinflation as the New Deflation

Final Freakout?

(The following is the introduction to the BullBear Weekend Report for 10/02/10)

We all know someone who seems to be in a constant state of worry and stress. If it's not one thing, it's…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 3, 2010 at 10:00pm — No Comments

For the last couple of weeks I have been warning that short and intermediate term technical indicators were suggesting that SPX would correct soon. SPX has doggedly edged higher during that time but now appears to have rolled over. Today's intraday reversal (after a news driven spike to a lower high) ended with the market below trendline support and resting on the key 1122 level. This comes after a bullish impulsive 5 wave rally from 1040.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 23, 2010 at 7:46pm — No Comments

It's Late September...Where's the Bear?

It's Late September

(originally published for BullBear Trading Room members on 9/12/10, re-published here with updates)

In the…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 17, 2010 at 5:00pm — No Comments

Deflationary Dreams, Reflationary Reality

Deflationary Dreams, Reflationary Reality…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 13, 2010 at 4:30pm — No Comments

Apocalypse Not Yet?

Apocalypse Not Yet?

(originally published 08/28/10-09/02/10 for BullBear Trading members)

There are significant indications that an important bottom may have been made in the equities markets on Friday, August…

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Added by Steven Vincent on September 2, 2010 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Put/Call Ratio May Indicate a Bottom

The Put/Call Ratio may be indicating that a short or intermediate term bottom is in place. We have seen two spikes to extreme levels beyond 1.2, the first of which resulted in an intraday reversal to a positive close and it appears that the same may happen today. Also, the 14 day moving average has breached the .95 area for the first time since the bull market began in March of 2009.

Relative strength in big cap financials is also worthy of note.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on February 10, 2010 at 12:00pm — No Comments

BullBear Trading Service Update

12/01/09 Update:

It appears that the market has setup for an upside breakout in stocks and commodities and a downside break in the dollar. Remember, when a market does not do what it should do when it should do it then it is about to do the opposite. The recent setup was for a downside break and a potential rally in the dollar and that appears to have failed. It would then be appropriate to take the other side of the trade.

Recent relative strength in small… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on December 1, 2009 at 1:51pm — 1 Comment

Guest Charts and Files

Andrew Cardwell Charts for 11/12/09:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 12, 2009 at 3:57pm — No Comments

Quickie Sentiment Report

I spent my morning reading through various market blog and news sites. I do this from time to time to gauge market sentiment.

I found very few posts expecting a decline in equities. The few posts that were bearish were tentatively so. None were decidedly bearish. I have found recently that many long time bears have turned bullish in the last 3 weeks and now that a decline may be setting up they are sticking to their new bullish position.

I found no posts expecting a… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on November 8, 2009 at 4:52pm — No Comments

Latest Activity on TheBullBear.com

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 7, 2009 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Stocks Selloff, Dollar Rally Imminent

I rarely make such pronouncements, but I think the evidence points to a substantial selloff in stocks and a very large rally in the USD commencing immediately. Commodities, including precious metals, should also participate in the downside.

I have been reluctant to counter trend trade since March, but since the uptrend is violated and there is a short term downtrend we can go ahead and put on a reasonable short position. My target is the 200 EMA on the SPX.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 4, 2009 at 9:12pm — 20 Comments

GDX:Gold Ratio Yellow Flag

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 4, 2009 at 3:00pm — 2 Comments

Latest Activity at TheBullBear.com

Here's some of the latest activity at http://www.TheBullBear.com. Jump in and add your thoughts and views to the mix!

New videos of The BullBear Market Report:

http://www.thebullbear.com/video/102909-steven-vincent-on-the…

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Added by Steven Vincent on November 1, 2009 at 12:01pm — No Comments

The BullBear Market Report Special Report

Today's intraday reversal in the equities markets follows a pattern that has been established of late of selling into rallies. Key support levels have been broken to the downside and without a late day recovery a close below those levels will likely usher in a significant pullback.

The dollar has also broken out of its descending wedge pattern. I was observing that the dollar was not selling off on the significant early strength in equities and was instead starting to push higher. I… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 26, 2009 at 1:32pm — No Comments

Rally Breadth Narrowing

The RUT:INDU Ratio chart shows that internal breadth has narrowed dramatically in the last two weeks of earnings season. The rally is being supported by a few big cap names (represented by the 30 DOW stocks in INDU) while interest in the broad market (represented by the 2000 stocks in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index) has declined sharply. This is a dramatic contrast with earlier stages of the rally. Caution is warranted.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 22, 2009 at 12:30pm — 1 Comment

BBTS Trade Updates

Here's a favorite market aphorism that helps me stay on the right side of the market:

"When a market doesn't do what it's supposed to do when it's supposed to do it then it may be about to do the exact opposite in a big way"

Well, the action in the market over the last two weeks of earnings season fits the above description. Today's intraday reversal was a big yellow flag. I am not calling "the top" or suggesting that we get short but I am putting out the caution… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 21, 2009 at 11:50pm — No Comments

Look Out Above?

Today's action in the US Dollar was very interesting. It appears to have made a short term double bottom and a trend break is not far away. Bearish sentiment has reached an extreme with the market trading off of rumors and articles. Yet the USD Index is nowhere near its all time lows and has been selling off in a very gradual, nearly sideways pattern.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 9, 2009 at 8:14pm — 9 Comments

Breakout

After a shallow and brief pullback the markets have broken out again.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 7, 2009 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Short Term Technicals

The SPX and NDX are now testing their short term downtrends and the break of the wedge formations off the July lows. Upside breaks here will likely lead to new highs and even a new leg in the bull market. Failure to do so and then penetration of the bull trendlines from March (in green) will lead to a substantive correction.

Here are the hourly charts:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 6, 2009 at 8:02pm — No Comments