Steven Vincent's Blog – October 2009 Archive (9)

The BullBear Market Report Special Report

Today's intraday reversal in the equities markets follows a pattern that has been established of late of selling into rallies. Key support levels have been broken to the downside and without a late day recovery a close below those levels will likely usher in a significant pullback.

The dollar has also broken out of its descending wedge pattern. I was observing that the dollar was not selling off on the significant early strength in equities and was instead starting to push higher. I… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 26, 2009 at 1:32pm — No Comments

Rally Breadth Narrowing

The RUT:INDU Ratio chart shows that internal breadth has narrowed dramatically in the last two weeks of earnings season. The rally is being supported by a few big cap names (represented by the 30 DOW stocks in INDU) while interest in the broad market (represented by the 2000 stocks in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index) has declined sharply. This is a dramatic contrast with earlier stages of the rally. Caution is warranted.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 22, 2009 at 12:30pm — 1 Comment

BBTS Trade Updates

Here's a favorite market aphorism that helps me stay on the right side of the market:

"When a market doesn't do what it's supposed to do when it's supposed to do it then it may be about to do the exact opposite in a big way"

Well, the action in the market over the last two weeks of earnings season fits the above description. Today's intraday reversal was a big yellow flag. I am not calling "the top" or suggesting that we get short but I am putting out the caution… Continue

Added by Steven Vincent on October 21, 2009 at 11:50pm — No Comments

Look Out Above?

Today's action in the US Dollar was very interesting. It appears to have made a short term double bottom and a trend break is not far away. Bearish sentiment has reached an extreme with the market trading off of rumors and articles. Yet the USD Index is nowhere near its all time lows and has been selling off in a very gradual, nearly sideways pattern.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 9, 2009 at 8:14pm — 9 Comments

Breakout

After a shallow and brief pullback the markets have broken out again.…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 7, 2009 at 8:00pm — No Comments

Short Term Technicals

The SPX and NDX are now testing their short term downtrends and the break of the wedge formations off the July lows. Upside breaks here will likely lead to new highs and even a new leg in the bull market. Failure to do so and then penetration of the bull trendlines from March (in green) will lead to a substantive correction.

Here are the hourly charts:…

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Added by Steven Vincent on October 6, 2009 at 8:02pm — No Comments

Crude Oil Bear Trap?

The recent breakdown in crude oil may turn out to be a bear trap. A close above the convergence of the long term trend, the trend off the March bottom and the short term downtrend will be very bullish.

Added by Steven Vincent on October 6, 2009 at 7:54pm — No Comments

Important Breakout in Gold

Is this forecasting a breakdown in the dollar? A continued rally in equities? A resurgence in commodities? Will the breakout hold?

Added by Steven Vincent on October 5, 2009 at 5:26pm — No Comments

Toppy And Trendless

THE BULLBEAR MARKET REPORT

October 4, 2009

The move produced out of this current period indicate recovery, stagflation or depression

SUMMARY

Overall, the evidence is mounting that some kind of…